dz5t4 9khk6 z8err yztkk ye287 yaiif 8n648 y4h6d drbh7 s5sae 6yist fattk 4r4zf 3f99a bbsdi kzd6z h2fyd 35ehi ta4hz 98687 698kd Keep an eye on the price of Crude, the Buffet Indicator, and my wife's chest. |

Keep an eye on the price of Crude, the Buffet Indicator, and my wife's chest.

2022.01.20 19:41 BrilliantEmergency35 Keep an eye on the price of Crude, the Buffet Indicator, and my wife's chest.

I realize the title may have some of you thinking 'what does this have to do with AMC?'
It's simple. Let me explain -- in 50,000 words or less.
Although +$100 oil has happened a few times in the past 10-years (it barely breached the $100 mark in 2010, 2011, and 2014), it's only sky-rocketed past this mark one time, ever. And that was in 2008. I remember it well: I was considering converting my car to natural gas, as I know many others were at the time.
Oil reached $140 a barrel in March of 2008. Over the course of the next 6 months it dipped as low as the low-$30's. The price of Oil, which is considered a bell-weather indicator of the health of the global economy (when it's trading at a stable price...like gold), crashed by 75% in a 6-month time-period -- which also co-incided with the Housing Crisis.
Looking at the Dow, in March of 2008 it was trading at 13,000. Over the next 6-months, it crashed (the phrase CRASHED gets mis-used far too often on Reddit, but in this case, it really did crash) down to a low under 6,500. So, over a 6-month period, the stock market tanked 50%.
Although it's become a relative fools errand to call for a 'top' of the market, and fear-mongering other apes into believing that a 1% down-day in the S&P constitutes a panic-inducing market crash is somewhat of a popular past-time on this and other sub-Reddit's, you'd be a fool into ignoring the warning cry of the Jeremy Grantham's and Michael Burry's of the world, who are both calling for a repeat of 2008 to the tune of a nearly 50% correction this year.
The reason I bring this up: there are many Ape's on this group, whether OG's like myself or newbies, who are touting tomorrow as the 'next' battle of $8.01, and suggesting that the sky's will fall if we somehow don't close above $21.01.
Sit back and relax and realize a few things: as today's price action showed, the HF's will stop at nothing to pump and then dump the entire market to keep the MOASS from happening (in the short-term). THIS IS SOMETHING THEY CAN CONTROL. They can control this because 1) they are crooks, 2) the system for naked shorts, etc. is rigged, and 3) the market caps for AMC and the rest of the Meme's is very, very small. They have a lot of money, and they can manipulate the market amongst themselves back and forth to keep us deep in the red.
HOWEVER, the global market for oil (both brent and crude) is (rough estimate as of today) 100 million barrels a day -- which, at a price of $85 per barrel, is currently $8.5 BILLION a DAY. Which, annually at today's prices, is over $3 TRILLION annually. Think about that for a moment. That's a lot of bananas.
Citadel and friends may be able to control the market for meme's, but they CAN NOT control the price of oil. And when an asset like oil takes a nose-dive and whips out 75% of it's value (in the case of 2008), it creates a vacuum that takes out everything else in it's path. This is the same principle of what transpired back in March of 2020 when crude oil futures went NEGATIVE. I was long natural gas at the time, but short Oil, and goodness, I had a good day that day. But that's for another day.
This is why the literal CRASH of 2008 ended up wipping out brokers and banks all over the place. Which brings me to my first main point: the MOASS isn't going to happen tomorrow. I know that might upset some of you. The reality is, January of last year caught the HF's off-guard. They've since corrected their plans to avoid getting caught unprepared for hyper-gamma squeezes like we experienced.
HOWEVER, HF's and retail investors alike can't run from the eventual literal market crap which many are suggesting is going to take place later this year (myself included). And, when the bottom falls out, that's when the margin calls will take place. That's when Kenny boy and the rest will be totally helpless against the coming storm.
If you want a third and final stat/chart to pay attention to to really help drive the point home of how screwed everyone is (except us...we're all bulletproof), pay attention to the Buffet indicator. Here's a link: Buffett Indicator Valuation Model (currentmarketvaluation.com)
Now look at where we're at today: 211%. That's....frothy. For some historical perspective of how 'market crashes' have shapped the Buffet indicator, pay attention to 1987, 2000, 2008, and 2020. Black Friday reduced about 20% in '87, dot.com reduced about 45% over 2-years, Housing/Banking crisis halved the indicator, and Black 2020 (whatever you want to call March 2020) brough us down about 30% (in the matter of about 3-trading days).
The dot.com crash occured after stocks were valued (at a nosebleed level back in the day) at 150% of annual GDP. Once the dust settled in 2002, the Nasdaq had crashed from over 5,000 to under 2,000; a 60% decline. That took the Buffet from 150% to around 80%. The Nasdaq's nosedive took with it a lot of 'unicorns' from the day (remember Lycos??? I sure do. Then there's AOL, Yahoo, etc.). The point being, 20-years ago we market 'vets' (I'm 42) went through a crash (then again 8-years later), and in both cases the signs were blinking red and very much hidden in plain sight in both instances.
That brings me back to the now: Peloton just took a massive dump because, who would have guessed it, the whole world isn't interested in paying $2,000 for a crappy exercise bike that requires them to pay $50 a month to have some d-bag talking about their wife's boyfriend for an hour at a time. And now, Nexflix is taking a massive dump, because there's no shortage of stupid shows available to stream on countless outlets (or, apparently just TikTok...). Look at virtually EVERY tech unicorn that went public over the last 2-years (Peloton, Uber, Lyft, Robin Hood, just to name a few). How are they doing? Not exactly the cash-cows people had projected they'd be for investors.
MOASS won't happen until the entire market is on fire. It's that simple. The HF's can use their gallon-sized pales to keep their boats afloat and patch the holes in their portfolios, but when the mother of all market crashes occurs (MOAMC), just like that volcano in Tonga, it will decimate the landscape.
Which brings me to my pretty Nostradamus-level predictions, which everyone loves to hear, I'm sure:

  1. Oil is going to sky-rocket this spring/summer to over $140 a barrel (see supply chain crisis, Covid, inflation, and interest rates). This will act as the first and very much necessary 'domino' to set the rest in motion.
Caveat to above point: Russia will invade Ukraine, which will have a massive spiking-effect on Natural Gas (and, thus, crude), sometime this winter.
2) The S&P will hit 5,000 in late-Spring. As the reverse repo market has shown us, there's no shortage of cash flying around. Thank the Fed for this one.
3) Daily RR totals will be over 2T (trillion) a day by April.
4) As noted above, thanks to Putin wanting to create the USSR 2.0, the US will attempt to have some pathetic NATO joint force operation to quell the invastion of Ukraine -- it won't work. Let's be honest -- this is Biden we're talking about. However, allowing Russia to run rough-shode over the world will be met with public cries around the world to keep him in check (although the world is full of those who hate the USA, there are MORE who hate Russia). This will drag us into a war with Russia; something that honestly scares me more than a war with China. However, it will be a short war -- all taking place over Ukraine, as to reinsert the world order to keep Russia from re-establishing the USSR.
5) The announcement of a military 'conflict' with Russia this Spring will be the ultimate shot-in-the-arm to oil prices to fly towards $140 again. And don't, for one second, think that the powers that be (whether in politics or business) DON'T want to see oil this high -- because it will help the public sentinement continue to sour towards fossil fuels.
6) By August, the S&P is down to 4,000 (20% decrease) -- and by October, it's down to 3,000.
7) With the S&P at 3,000 (if not lower) by October, the Nasdaq under 8,000, tech unicorns dead and burried all over the place, and Biden in the middle of the mid-terms from Hell (where Republicans will pick up 50 seats in the house and 10 seats in the Senate), oil will be plunging towards $50 a barrel.
8) Thanks to hemeraging money left and right, HF's after HF's will be going belly-up, getting margin called left and right. And, it's these MARGIN CALLS that will set off the ultimate MOASS for all shorts in the market, but most importantly -- AMC.
9) By Election night 2022, MOASS will have taken place. I predict it will start mid-October, due to everything noted above. My estimated guess of 'peak' AMC price is $1000 a share. This may hurt some of you, but the reality is, when you're into your shares for $10 a share (like me .... 73,000 shares), the idea of selling for a 10,000% profit before everyone runs to the doors is a pretty smart exit strategy.
10) I'll buy my wife a new set of boobs (and a new car).

Sorry, this got long-winded, but nevertheless, it needed to be said.

BUY, HOLD, and BUY SOMEMORE.
submitted by BrilliantEmergency35 to amcstock [link] [comments]


2022.01.20 19:41 jj36129 [BDSP] LF: Lunatone, Sableye, Glameow, Magmarizer

FT: Duped shinies: legendary birds, walrein, manaphy, slugma, vileplume, seviper, yanmega, igglybuff
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2022.01.20 19:41 trent_vanepps Protocol Guild announcement/progress update

Hey all, stopping by to share the Protocol Guild, which we've been working on for a few months now. been so swamped i never got to post it here!
Proposal DocsAnnouncement post (Dec 31)
This is a new public goods funding mechanism by Stateful Works: a split contract which distributes donated application tokens over a vesting period to a self-curated list of Ethereum protocol contributors. The primary goals: to provide autonomous tools for recruitment, retention, and reward to the protocol and its maintainers. If desired, individuals can forward their allocation to a charity.
“And, Ebling, there’s another, greater purpose. Hari Seldon founded two Foundations three centuries ago; one at each end of the Galaxy. You must find that Second Foundation.” Foundation, Isaac Asimov
Looking forward to hearing your feedback, and hopefully future support in getting the message out, connections to potential sponsors. We're still onboarding potential members (up to ~60 now), but momentum is strong!
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@ title
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