2022.01.20 19:41 BrilliantEmergency35 Keep an eye on the price of Crude, the Buffet Indicator, and my wife's chest.
I realize the title may have some of you thinking 'what does this have to do with AMC?'
It's simple. Let me explain -- in 50,000 words or less.
Although +$100 oil has happened a few times in the past 10-years (it barely breached the $100 mark in 2010, 2011, and 2014), it's only sky-rocketed past this mark one time, ever. And that was in 2008. I remember it well: I was considering converting my car to natural gas, as I know many others were at the time.
Oil reached $140 a barrel in March of 2008. Over the course of the next 6 months it dipped as low as the low-$30's. The price of Oil, which is considered a bell-weather indicator of the health of the global economy (when it's trading at a stable price...like gold), crashed by 75% in a 6-month time-period -- which also co-incided with the Housing Crisis.
Looking at the Dow, in March of 2008 it was trading at 13,000. Over the next 6-months, it crashed (the phrase CRASHED gets mis-used far too often on Reddit, but in this case, it really did crash) down to a low under 6,500. So, over a 6-month period, the stock market tanked 50%.
Although it's become a relative fools errand to call for a 'top' of the market, and fear-mongering other apes into believing that a 1% down-day in the S&P constitutes a panic-inducing market crash is somewhat of a popular past-time on this and other sub-Reddit's, you'd be a fool into ignoring the warning cry of the Jeremy Grantham's and Michael Burry's of the world, who are both calling for a repeat of 2008 to the tune of a nearly 50% correction this year.
The reason I bring this up: there are many Ape's on this group, whether OG's like myself or newbies, who are touting tomorrow as the 'next' battle of $8.01, and suggesting that the sky's will fall if we somehow don't close above $21.01.
Sit back and relax and realize a few things: as today's price action showed, the HF's will stop at nothing to pump and then dump the entire market to keep the MOASS from happening (in the short-term). THIS IS SOMETHING THEY CAN CONTROL. They can control this because 1) they are crooks, 2) the system for naked shorts, etc. is rigged, and 3) the market caps for AMC and the rest of the Meme's is very, very small. They have a lot of money, and they can manipulate the market amongst themselves back and forth to keep us deep in the red.
HOWEVER, the global market for oil (both brent and crude) is (rough estimate as of today) 100 million barrels a day -- which, at a price of $85 per barrel, is currently $8.5 BILLION a DAY. Which, annually at today's prices, is over $3 TRILLION annually. Think about that for a moment. That's a lot of bananas.
Citadel and friends may be able to control the market for meme's, but they CAN NOT control the price of oil. And when an asset like oil takes a nose-dive and whips out 75% of it's value (in the case of 2008), it creates a vacuum that takes out everything else in it's path. This is the same principle of what transpired back in March of 2020 when crude oil futures went NEGATIVE. I was long natural gas at the time, but short Oil, and goodness, I had a good day that day. But that's for another day.
This is why the literal CRASH of 2008 ended up wipping out brokers and banks all over the place. Which brings me to my first main point: the MOASS isn't going to happen tomorrow. I know that might upset some of you. The reality is, January of last year caught the HF's off-guard. They've since corrected their plans to avoid getting caught unprepared for hyper-gamma squeezes like we experienced.
HOWEVER, HF's and retail investors alike can't run from the eventual literal market crap which many are suggesting is going to take place later this year (myself included). And, when the bottom falls out, that's when the margin calls will take place. That's when Kenny boy and the rest will be totally helpless against the coming storm.
If you want a third and final stat/chart to pay attention to to really help drive the point home of how screwed everyone is (except us...we're all bulletproof), pay attention to the Buffet indicator. Here's a link: Buffett Indicator Valuation Model (currentmarketvaluation.com)
Now look at where we're at today: 211%. That's....frothy. For some historical perspective of how 'market crashes' have shapped the Buffet indicator, pay attention to 1987, 2000, 2008, and 2020. Black Friday reduced about 20% in '87, dot.com reduced about 45% over 2-years, Housing/Banking crisis halved the indicator, and Black 2020 (whatever you want to call March 2020) brough us down about 30% (in the matter of about 3-trading days).
The dot.com crash occured after stocks were valued (at a nosebleed level back in the day) at 150% of annual GDP. Once the dust settled in 2002, the Nasdaq had crashed from over 5,000 to under 2,000; a 60% decline. That took the Buffet from 150% to around 80%. The Nasdaq's nosedive took with it a lot of 'unicorns' from the day (remember Lycos??? I sure do. Then there's AOL, Yahoo, etc.). The point being, 20-years ago we market 'vets' (I'm 42) went through a crash (then again 8-years later), and in both cases the signs were blinking red and very much hidden in plain sight in both instances.
That brings me back to the now: Peloton just took a massive dump because, who would have guessed it, the whole world isn't interested in paying $2,000 for a crappy exercise bike that requires them to pay $50 a month to have some d-bag talking about their wife's boyfriend for an hour at a time. And now, Nexflix is taking a massive dump, because there's no shortage of stupid shows available to stream on countless outlets (or, apparently just TikTok...). Look at virtually EVERY tech unicorn that went public over the last 2-years (Peloton, Uber, Lyft, Robin Hood, just to name a few). How are they doing? Not exactly the cash-cows people had projected they'd be for investors.
MOASS won't happen until the entire market is on fire. It's that simple. The HF's can use their gallon-sized pales to keep their boats afloat and patch the holes in their portfolios, but when the mother of all market crashes occurs (MOAMC), just like that volcano in Tonga, it will decimate the landscape.
Which brings me to my pretty Nostradamus-level predictions, which everyone loves to hear, I'm sure:
2022.01.20 19:41 jj36129 [BDSP] LF: Lunatone, Sableye, Glameow, Magmarizer
2022.01.20 19:41 Necessary_Leader_254 At least they do stuff separately
2022.01.20 19:41 SnowmanAndBrother Feather Lickin' Good 😁
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2022.01.20 19:41 MaepleWriting Minimalistic cover for my book. Thoughts?
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2022.01.20 19:41 throwitout3736 T
2022.01.20 19:41 jetkey In den Zeiten der Maskenpflicht sucht man sich zu behelfen.
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2022.01.20 19:41 LowBarometer EV Camper from Thor with "300 mile range" and "Fuel Cell." Yeah, right.
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2022.01.20 19:41 jamtula Liked the single I had so much I decided to go back in for a box. Presentation is pure class. They smell delicious, are rolled perfectly and have a nice oily sheen. Only 1,000 boxes produced. Amazing cigar!
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2022.01.20 19:41 orvoke Port wine sauce
I have an extra bottle of port wine and I was hoping to whip up a port wine sauce for some roast reindeer. I found some interesting recipes online for guidance but a lot of them used 7 dl (3 cups) of port wine and a good amount of stock for a batch that serves 4-6 people. What's up with that? Do you really need to reduce a whole bottle of port wine down to 1 dl (1/2 cup) to make a proper port wine sauce?
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2022.01.20 19:41 HEAL3D How to find Insider Trading Activity and Insider Ownership & How to Interpret It (Stock Analysis Helpful DD)
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2022.01.20 19:41 RepresentativeLet537 Why does my period blood seem extra thick or in form of jelly?
2022.01.20 19:41 MilesOfPebbles Ontario Liberals Call for Vaccine Certificates to Require Boosters
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2022.01.20 19:41 Pantaaaa61 A friend of four years who I considered my best friend doesn’t consider me as such
So I (15F) met my friend Nene (16F) (fake name) when I was 11 and she was 11 or 12. We’ve been inseparable to say the least. We ended up dating when I was 13 and she was 13 turning 14. We broke up the day before my 15th birthday but we still kept talking to each other everyday. We always talked with each other whenever we had the chance and since I was able to connect with her and was able to tell her personal things that I wouldn’t share to anyone else I considered her my best friend. Flash forward 5:16 I told her that I was worried about her (she told me that her brain was empty but she was just messing around) and she got mad at the response so I said “I can’t worry about my bestie?” and then she replied with “We were friends, I don’t remember being besties”. I’ve known her for four years and I trusted her with a bunch of stuff but now idk how to feel.
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2022.01.20 19:41 introverteddude551 I feel sad but i honestly don't know why
I don't know what's wrong with me, even the things i used to enjoy(video games, football, sports) have become boring. I just feel useless and lonely, but i honestly don't have a valid reason for these feelings. I just spend all damn free time on reddit hearing about others issues and struggles without even trying trying to fix my life
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2022.01.20 19:41 thestonecuttersguild WIP: more decal struggles with Thunderbirds Hun, pls Heller RF-84F
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2022.01.20 19:41 Disastrous-Brief-516 I made this video about six months ago, and it is very bad. I am not proud of it. Furthermore, I am looking for feedback on how to make my newer videos better, or at least of a quality of where I do not cringe while watching it.
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2022.01.20 19:41 nightmarengine how is everyone playing battle royale?
2022.01.20 19:41 SK_Fuego I need help convincing my friend
So recently my friend finished building a giant sky island that the whole time knew I hated. Now there’s a giant shadow cast over the lake where we were going to build a village. Aside from that, the island itself is an eyesore. Can someone help me convince him to take it down?
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2022.01.20 19:41 Mashu009 Willet and nikka ftb pickups today from Oak Liquor Cabinet
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2022.01.20 19:41 Taylor1991 Day 153 Getting a Mattress and Explaining
2022.01.20 19:41 xlosion Naruto Flying Rayjin
Since the kuruma nerf naruto no longer has his speed that can rival the flying rayjin so it would be a huge benefit and as we know sage mode and flying rayjin together is something to be weary about
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2022.01.20 19:41 trent_vanepps Protocol Guild announcement/progress update
Hey all, stopping by to share the Protocol Guild, which we've been working on for a few months now. been so swamped i never got to post it here!
→ Proposal Docs → Announcement post (Dec 31)
This is a new public goods funding mechanism by Stateful Works: a split contract which distributes donated application tokens over a vesting period to a self-curated list of Ethereum protocol contributors. The primary goals: to provide autonomous tools for recruitment, retention, and reward to the protocol and its maintainers. If desired, individuals can forward their allocation to a charity.
“And, Ebling, there’s another, greater purpose. Hari Seldon founded two Foundations three centuries ago; one at each end of the Galaxy. You must find that Second Foundation.” Foundation, Isaac Asimov
Looking forward to hearing your feedback, and hopefully future support in getting the message out, connections to potential sponsors. We're still onboarding potential members (up to ~60 now), but momentum is strong!
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2022.01.20 19:41 Austins-Reddit CEL Token Almost Sub $3
2022.01.20 19:41 hatefulone851 If this games taught me anything it’s that Maxx C should never come back to the tcg